The economic data will be announced today in July The price falls but period after rise

The economic data will be announced today in July The price falls but period after rise


Will announce the economic data for a plurality of Julies today, among them CPI data will be paid close attention to by most market. The market expects CPI will probably break through 3.1% of the levels of May and hit the new peak within the year in July. But organization personage thinks, the pork price in future is difficult to rise sharply, the subsequent price still prones to downwards.
According to the data of Department of Commerce, the price of pork has risen to exceed 8% since July, caused the part to worry. As to this, first the intersection of undertaking and analyst say observe, come on, watch from data, live pig of China produce cycle of fluctuating as 3-4 year, the live pig should generally go through drop cycle from half to two for one year while producing prices, then the upward cycles of about two years. Producers, according to expecting the price of pork carries on decision, there is characteristic of fluctuating synchronously in theory at the price of pork. The last round of the intersection of meat and the intersection of price and upward the intersection of cycle and ago over 3 o'clock already that begin will it be the beginning 2007, and live pig produce price index 7 drop quarter continuously already, the price of pork will enter periodic rise in the second half year. Pork price recently stable to rebound, normal periodic rise, country since June accept and store concerning certainly for the fifth time too.
But that kind that the analyst does not think the price of pork will present 2007 rises by a wide margin, because because of the outburst of pig's blue ear disease at that time, caused the live pig to supply and reduce and raise prices by a wide margin. Come, look at present, supply and demand will obviously out-of-balance, live pig the intersection of livestock on hand and quantity reduce slightly from the end of last year to midyear of this year, but total amount influence big, and the intersection of live pig and the intersection of livestock on hand and quantity chain rate increases by 0.7% for the first time within the year June, can in great numbers sow account for than keep above 10%. The rate of exchange of pig's grain has begun to already get back to 6 in week since July 23: 1 more than, the state less than equalization point of profit and loss since finishing the beginning of the year. Pork price will present, rise sharply, and until weather take a favorable turn, vegetables price will be stopped rising and falling after rise. Combine, stick up the intersection of tail and factor, currency, supply, visit price, conduct up and down, CPI of July may be a peak within the year, later the whole that the price will definitely leave was downwards.

|