Secret worry under China's economic inflation

Secret worry under China's economic inflation
Every data indicate, China's present economic situation can be come down to " the economy under the secret worry of the inflation shrinks " . Seem to be the contradiction, inevitable actually.
Talk about the secret worry of the inflation first. First of all, the money supply of quantity impelled market of a large number of flowability entry on day since last year, the inflation is a monetary phenomenon, the overflowing of currency causes the inflation to be expected to accumulate gradually; Secondly, the factor of scalping etc. of suffering from disaster and hurting the weather, idle fund influences, the part 000061, burst) Supply shortage, the rise of agricultural products, the food price influences the change of the price directly, and then consider the base figure factor of the data last year, which month the price data may be entered and increased the passway fast in the future; In addition, until the intersection of manufacturing industry and labor cost rise, our country the intersection of coal and electric the intersection of oil gas and price all have the tendency to rise, so inflation it intimidates to be not only secret worry, turn reality into slowly.
Why say again economy shrinks? First, taken a favorable turn with the external economy situation to some extent since the beginning of the year, a lot of countries begin to withdraw from the tactics, countries such as Australia, Canada,etc. restart and increase the interest one after another. Although Chinese Government has not followed and increased the interest, has carried on the fine setting to the incentive policy, tighten up currency and credit, raise the deposit reserve ratio of commercial bank many times. Who knows that ran into again the crisis with sovereign right of Europe spreads, the inflation of euro area wanders up and down in the low order at this moment, some countries have even shouldered the inflation. Second, after the financial crisis, the external environment condition worsens, the export glides. European dollar is cashed RMB also devalue by a wide margin, the export to Europe of China drops suddenly. Favorable balance reduce, become foreign currency important reason that fund reduce, our country monetary environment further shrinks.
Therefore, China's economy faces a crossroad. Pursuing the economic growth and paying a price for being one-sided on one hand, if does not deal with well, may appear under the inflation background" Stagflation " Risk. Also possible appearance is, because real economy invests in and lacks attractiveness, without good investment field, a large amount of fund is withdrawn from real estate, stock market and market for farm products, the currency flows back to the banking system. The bank strengthens the risk control too, " cherish the loan " again The scene, enterprise's financing difficulty, then there is the possibility that China's economy falls into the deflation. One kind appears in the above-mentioned two kinds of situations, economy is extremely " mended and fallen" probably .
How does economy of dissolving China faces " The domestic trouble and foreign invasion " ,Need the government on the basis of the correct judgement to the domestic and foreign economic situation, and construct with the resolute policy. The economic research of Merrill Lynch global research department is in charge of EthanHarris to think, will happen at spy's bottom two times of economy when the policy fault appearsing only, and policy fault including fast ground raise interest or it last government expenditure.
What course should the economy of China follow in the future, the intelligence of Chinese Government of the test again.
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